{"id":665053,"date":"2025-12-07T11:37:04","date_gmt":"2025-12-07T11:37:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=665053"},"modified":"2025-12-07T11:37:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-07T11:37:04","slug":"pe-cine-avantajeaza-prezenta-mica-la-alegerile-din-bucuresti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=665053","title":{"rendered":"Pe cine avantajeaz\u0103 prezen\u021ba mic\u0103 la alegerile din Bucure\u0219ti"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/pe-cine-avantajeaza-prezenta-mica-la-alegerile-din-bucuresti.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"p-0\">\u00cen acest context, \u00eentrebarea esen\u021bial\u0103 nu este doar c\u00e2\u021bi oameni voteaz\u0103, ci cine vine la urne \u0219i pe cine avantajeaz\u0103 o prezen\u021b\u0103 at\u00e2t de redus\u0103.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"chapter-0\">Record negativ la pr\u00e2nz<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-1\">Datele AEP arat\u0103 c\u0103, p\u00e2n\u0103 la pr\u00e2nz, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediafax.ro\/politic\/alegeri-primaria-bucuresti-2025-capitala-voteaza-astazi-primarul-general-remus-stefureac-e-posibila-o-prezenta-la-vot-sub-30-23653939\">Bucure\u0219tiul are cea mai sc\u0103zut\u0103 participare<\/a> de la localele din 2020 \u00eencoace, at\u00e2t ca procent, c\u00e2t \u0219i ca num\u0103r absolut de voturi. Dac\u0103 \u00een 2024 la pr\u00e2nz fuseser\u0103 deja la urne cu aproape 50.000 de bucure\u0219teni mai mult dec\u00e2t acum, 2025 se contureaz\u0103 ca un scrutin cu o mobilizare mult mai slab\u0103.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-2\">Prezen\u021ba mic\u0103 la pr\u00e2nz nu ne spune \u00eenc\u0103 cine va c\u00e2\u0219tiga alegerile \u00een Bucure\u0219ti, dar ne arat\u0103 cine are, deocamdat\u0103, avantajul structural: partidele \u0219i candida\u021bii capabili s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i aduc\u0103 la urne nucleul disciplinat de sus\u021bin\u0103tori, \u00eentr-un context de oboseal\u0103 electoral\u0103 \u0219i apatie general.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"chapter-1\">Istoric: cine a c\u00e2\u0219tigat c\u00e2nd prezen\u021ba a fost mic\u0103 \u00een Bucure\u0219ti<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-3\">Dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m la ultimele trei alegeri la termen pentru Prim\u0103ria Capitalei, Bucure\u0219tiul confirm\u0103 dou\u0103 lucruri: prezen\u021ba este constant sub media na\u021bional\u0103, dar nu exist\u0103 o regul\u0103 mecanic\u0103 de tipul \u201eprezen\u021b\u0103 mic\u0103 = c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103tor clar dintr-o tab\u0103r\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-4\">Bucure\u0219ti \u2013 prezen\u021b\u0103 la locale la termen (AEP):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2016 \u2013 33,23% (cea mai mic\u0103 prezen\u021b\u0103 recent\u0103 la locale \u00een Capital\u0103) \u2013 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 Gabriela Firea (PSD);<\/li>\n<li>2020 \u2013 36,72% \u2013 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 Nicu\u0219or Dan (independent sus\u021binut de USR-PLUS \u0219i PNL);<\/li>\n<li>2024 \u2013 41,19% \u2013 c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 din nou Nicu\u0219or Dan, sus\u021binut de alian\u021ba de dreapta.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"chapter-2\">Ce se vede din aceast\u0103 succesiune<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-5\">Cea mai mic\u0103 prezen\u021b\u0103 (2016) a adus victoria unui candidat sus\u021binut de PSD ce la vremea respectiv\u0103 avea un apparat de partid puternic \u0219i a reu\u0219it s\u0103 mobilizeze electoratul s\u0103u traditional.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-6\">O prezen\u021b\u0103 ceva mai mare, dar tot modest\u0103 (2020), a permis unui candidat ce avea o platform\u0103 \u00eempotriva conducerii de la vremea respectiv\u0103 s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige, dar la limit\u0103.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-7\">La cea mai mare prezen\u021b\u0103 din ultimii ani (2024), Nicu\u0219or Dan a ob\u021binut un scor mult mai confortabil, \u00een timp ce partidele de guvernare s-au pr\u0103bu\u0219it ca scor \u00een Bucure\u0219ti.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-8\">Prezen\u021ba conteaz\u0103, dar nu singur\u0103. Ea func\u021bioneaz\u0103 ca un multiplicator pentru cine reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i aduc\u0103 la vot nucleul dur \u0219i \u201ezona gri\u201d de aleg\u0103tori care oscileaz\u0103 sau vin rar la urne.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"chapter-3\">Lec\u021bia preziden\u021bialelor din 2025: c\u00e2nd joac\u0103 doar nucleul dur<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-9\">Un exemplu recent despre cum arat\u0103 o prezen\u021b\u0103 care favorizeaz\u0103 nucleul dur este primul tur al alegerilor preziden\u021biale din 4 mai 2025. Atunci, cu o participare de 53,21%, candidatul AUR, George Simion, a ob\u021binut aproape 41% din voturi, dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de scorul lui Nicu\u0219or Dan, aflat la circa 21%.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-10\">AUR a demonstrat atunci c\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i poate mobiliza foarte bine electoratul fidel, inclusiv \u00een diaspora, unde Simion a c\u00e2\u0219tigat deta\u0219at \u00een multe \u021b\u0103ri vest-europene.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-11\">\u00cen turul al doilea, pe 18 mai, tabloul s-a schimbat radical: prezen\u021ba a urcat la 64,72%, cel mai ridicat nivel din ultimii ani la un scrutin, iar Nicu\u0219or Dan a c\u00e2\u0219tigat cu aproximativ 54% din voturi, \u00eentorc\u00e2nd un handicap de milioane de voturi fa\u021b\u0103 de Simion.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-12\">Diferen\u021ba major\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de preziden\u021biale este c\u0103 alegerile pentru Prim\u0103ria Capitalei nu au turul doi. Primarul este ales dintr-un singur tur, printr-un sistem de tip \u201ec\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 primul clasat\u201d, chiar dac\u0103 ob\u021bine sub 50%+1 din voturi.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"chapter-4\">Cine candideaz\u0103 \u00een Bucure\u0219ti la Alegerile Par\u021biale 2025<\/h2>\n<p id=\"p-13\">Aleg\u0103torii vor avea pe buletin opt candida\u021bi distribui\u021bi pe dou\u0103 file, plus \u00eenc\u0103 unul pe a treia fil\u0103.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>C\u0103t\u0103lin Drul\u0103 \u2013 Uniunea Salva\u021bi Rom\u00e2nia (USR),<\/li>\n<li>Daniel B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103 \u2013 Partidul Social Democrat (PSD),<\/li>\n<li>George Burcea \u2013 Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (POT),<\/li>\n<li>Ciprian Ciucu \u2013 Partidul Na\u021bional Liberal (PNL),<\/li>\n<li>Ana-Maria Ciceal\u0103 \u2013 S\u0103n\u0103tate Educa\u021bie Natur\u0103 Sustenabilitate (SENS),<\/li>\n<li>Liviu Gheorghe Florea \u2013 Partidul Na\u021bional \u021a\u0103r\u0103nesc Maniu Mihalache (PN\u021aMM),<\/li>\n<li>Gheorghe Macovei \u2013 Partidul Rom\u00e2nia Mare (PRM),<\/li>\n<li>Oana Cre\u021bu \u2013 Partidul Social Democrat Unit (PSDU),<\/li>\n<li>Mihai Lasca \u2013 Patrio\u021bii Poporului Rom\u00e2n (PPR),<\/li>\n<li>Rare\u0219 Laz\u0103r \u2013 Partidul Rom\u00e2nia \u00een Ac\u021biune (PRA),<\/li>\n<li>Anca Alexandrescu \u2013 Alian\u021ba electoral\u0103 \u201eDreptate pentru Bucure\u0219ti\u201d,<\/li>\n<li>Dan Trifu \u2013 candidat independent,<\/li>\n<li>Eugen Orlando Teodorovici \u2013 candidat independent,<\/li>\n<li>Gheorghe Ne\u021boiu \u2013 candidat independent,<\/li>\n<li>Vlad Gheorghe \u2013 candidat independent,<\/li>\n<li>Angela Negrot\u0103 \u2013 candidat independent,<\/li>\n<li>Filip Titian \u2013 candidat independent.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p id=\"p-14\">Mai multe detalii despre candida\u021bi g\u0103si\u021bi&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediafax.ro\/politic\/alegeri-primaria-capitalei-2025-cine-sunt-cei-17-candidati-si-ce-loc-ocupa-pe-buletinele-de-vot-23651775\">AICI<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-15\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-16\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-17\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p id=\"p-18\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cen acest context, \u00eentrebarea esen\u021bial\u0103 nu este doar c\u00e2\u021bi oameni voteaz\u0103, ci cine vine la urne \u0219i pe cine avantajeaz\u0103 o prezen\u021b\u0103 at\u00e2t de redus\u0103. Record negativ la pr\u00e2nz Datele &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=665053\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":665054,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/665053"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=665053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/665053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/665054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=665053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=665053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=665053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}