{"id":687340,"date":"2026-04-14T15:36:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=687340"},"modified":"2026-04-14T15:36:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:36:04","slug":"avertismentul-fmi-economia-globala-risca-sa-intre-in-recesiune-daca-razboiul-din-orientul-mijlociu-continua","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=687340","title":{"rendered":"Avertismentul FMI: Economia global\u0103 risc\u0103 s\u0103 intre \u00een recesiune dac\u0103 r\u0103zboiul din Orientul Mijlociu continu\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Fondul Monetar Interna\u021bional (FMI) a avertizat mar\u021bi asupra faptului c\u0103 o escaladare suplimentar\u0103 a conflictului cu Iranul ar putea declan\u0219a o recesiune global\u0103, dar \u0219i o reac\u021bie violent\u0103 pe pie\u021bele financiare, scrie The Guardian<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

\u00cen raportul \u201eWorld Economic Outlook\u201d, FMI a afirmat c\u0103, \u00een cel mai pesimist scenariu \u2013 \u00een care pre\u021burile petrolului, gazelor \u0219i alimentelor vor cre\u0219te \u0219i vor r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicate \u00een 2026 \u0219i 2027 \u2013 cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 global\u0103 ar putea sc\u0103dea sub 2% \u00een 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201eAcest lucru ar \u00eensemna o situa\u021bie critic\u0103, la un pas de o recesiune global\u0103, care s-a produs de doar patru ori din 1980, iar dou\u0103 dintre acestei situa\u021bii au fost, de fapt, asociate cu crize majore: criza financiar\u0103 mondial\u0103 \u0219i pandemia de Covid\u201d, a declarat Gourinchas, ad\u0103ug\u00e2nd c\u0103 este vorba de \u201eo rat\u0103 de cre\u0219tere extrem de sc\u0103zut\u0103 pentru economia mondial\u0103\u201d, potrivit BBC<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

FMI a mai subliniat faptul c\u0103 printre cele mai severe condi\u021bii care ar putea duce la o \u00eencetinire la nivel mondial s-ar num\u0103ra pre\u021burile petrolului care ar ajunge la o medie de 110 dolari pe baril \u00een acest an \u0219i ar atinge 125 de dolari \u00een 2027. \u00centr-un astfel de scenariu, infla\u021bia ar putea ajunge la 6% anul viitor, iar b\u0103ncile centrale ar fi obligate s\u0103 majoreze ratele dob\u00e2nzilor pentru a \u00eencetini ritmul cre\u0219terii pre\u021burilor, mai spune FMI.<\/p>\n

Scenariul de referin\u021b\u0103 al FMI<\/h2>\n

Economistul-\u0219ef al FMI, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, a declarat pentru Financial Times<\/a><\/span> (FT) c\u0103 negocierile de la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii trecute au declan\u0219at o cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor petrolului \u201ecare ne-ar apropia de scenariul nefavorabil\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201eE\u0219ecul negocierilor dintre Iran \u0219i SUA, blocada reciproc\u0103 impus\u0103 de SUA\u2026 ar putea agrava situa\u021bia, bloc\u00e2nd \u0219i mai mult petrolul \u00een Str\u00e2mtoarea Ormuz, \u00een loc s\u0103-i permit\u0103 s\u0103 ajung\u0103 pe pia\u021b\u0103\u201d, a spus Gourinchas pentru FT.<\/p>\n

Scenariul de referin\u021b\u0103 al FMI, care a fost stabilit la \u00eenceputul acestei luni, \u00eenainte de e\u0219ecul negocierilor de \u00eencetare a focului din weekend, prevedea o cre\u0219tere de 3,1% \u00een acest an \u0219i o infla\u021bie de 4,4%.<\/p>\n

\u00cenainte de izbucnirea conflictului \u00een Orientul Mijlociu, pre\u021burile petrolului se situau \u00een jurul valorii de 70 de dolari pe baril, \u00eens\u0103 odat\u0103 cu blocarea Str\u00e2mtorii Ormuz \u0219i cu e\u0219uarea negocierilor de pace SUA-Iran, acestea au crescut vertiginos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fondul Monetar Interna\u021bional (FMI) a avertizat mar\u021bi asupra faptului c\u0103 o escaladare suplimentar\u0103 a conflictului cu Iranul ar putea declan\u0219a o recesiune global\u0103, dar \u0219i o reac\u021bie violent\u0103 pe pie\u021bele … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":687341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/687340"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=687340"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/687340\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/687341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=687340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=687340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=687340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}