{"id":695907,"date":"2026-06-03T11:06:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T11:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=695907"},"modified":"2026-06-03T11:06:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T11:06:04","slug":"ft-ocde-lanseaza-un-scenariu-economic-global-foarte-sumbru-ce-genereaza-criza-energetica-prelungita","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=695907","title":{"rendered":"FT: OCDE lanseaz\u0103 un scenariu economic global \u201efoarte sumbru\u201d. Ce genereaz\u0103 criza energetic\u0103 prelungit\u0103\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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E\u0219ecul rezolv\u0103rii crizei energetice din Orientul Mijlociu ar arunca lumea \u00eentr-un \u201escenariu sumbru\u201d de sc\u0103dere a cre\u0219terii economice \u0219i cre\u0219tere brusc\u0103 a ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor, a avertizat OCDE.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sc\u0103derea cre\u0219terii economice globale<\/h2>\n

Organiza\u021bia cu sediul la Paris a declarat c\u0103 o \u201eperturbare prelungit\u0103\u201d a fluxurilor de energie, care dureaz\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een a doua jum\u0103tate a anului 2027, ar reduce cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 global\u0103 la 2,1% \u00een acest an \u0219i la doar 1,8% anul viitor, relateaz\u0103 FT.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Astfel de rate sunt \u201eextrem de sc\u0103zute \u00een afara recesiunilor globale majore, cum ar fi criza financiar\u0103 global\u0103 sau pandemia\u201d, a avertizat OCDE , ad\u0103ug\u00e2nd c\u0103 marile b\u0103nci centrale, cum ar fi Rezerva Federal\u0103 a SUA, ar trebui s\u0103 r\u0103spund\u0103 prin cre\u0219terea ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor cu cel pu\u021bin jum\u0103tate de punct pentru a reduce riscurile infla\u021bioniste.<\/p>\n

Eforturile de a dep\u0103\u0219i fragilul armisti\u021biu dintre Washington \u0219i Teheran au e\u0219uat \u00een ultimele zile, dup\u0103 ce Iranul a atacat o baz\u0103 militar\u0103 american\u0103 \u00een Kuweit, ca r\u0103spuns la atacurile americane \u00eempotriva unor \u021binte militare din sudul Iranului. Acest lucru a sl\u0103bit speran\u021bele c\u0103 un acord ar putea fi aproape de redeschiderea Str\u00e2mtorii Ormuz pentru mai multe nave.<\/p>\n

Perspectivele OCDE<\/h2>\n

\u00cen cea mai recent\u0103 perspectiv\u0103 global\u0103 a OCDE, scenariul central al acesteia presupune c\u0103, totu\u0219i, criza poate fi rezolvat\u0103 \u00een cur\u00e2nd. Dac\u0103 pre\u021burile la energie se men\u021bin la nivelurile actuale de pe pia\u021ba futures, cre\u0219terea global\u0103 va sc\u0103dea \u00een acest an la 2,8%, fa\u021b\u0103 de 3,4% \u00een 2025. Aceasta va cre\u0219te la 3,1% \u00een 2027, a declarat OCDE.<\/p>\n

Conform acestui scenariu central, cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 a SUA va \u00eencetini la 2% \u00een acest an, fa\u021b\u0103 de 2,1% \u00een 2025. Infla\u021bia din SUA va ajunge la 3,7% \u00een acest an, mult peste \u021binta de 2% a Fed, dar mai pu\u021bin dec\u00e2t 4,2% prognozat\u0103 de OCDE \u00een martie.<\/p>\n

Printre \u021b\u0103rile G7, Regatul Unit va avea cea mai mare rat\u0103 a infla\u021biei \u00een acest an, al\u0103turi de SUA, cu o cre\u0219tere a pre\u021burilor de 3,7%. OCDE \u0219i-a revizuit modest \u00een cre\u0219tere previziunile privind cre\u0219terea PIB-ului Regatului Unit \u00een acest an la 0,9%, fa\u021b\u0103 de o prognoz\u0103 anterioar\u0103 din martie de 0,7%. Produc\u021bia va continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103 cu 1,1% \u00een 2027.<\/p>\n

Conform scenariului central, principalele b\u0103nci centrale, inclusiv Fed \u0219i Banca Angliei, pot men\u021bine ratele dob\u00e2nzilor neschimbate \u00een ciuda cre\u0219terii infla\u021biei pe termen scurt, a declarat OCDE. \u00cens\u0103, avertiza acesta, e\u0219ecul de a ob\u021bine un acord de pace p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2027 ar provoca daune de durat\u0103 economiei globale . Stefano Scarpetta, economistul-\u0219ef al OCDE, a declarat: \u201eSper c\u0103 nu ne afl\u0103m deja \u00een scenariul perturb\u0103rilor prelungite, deoarece acesta este un scenariu foarte sumbru<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

La ce nivel ar putea ajunge pre\u021burile energiei<\/h2>\n

Conform acestei perspective, pre\u021burile energiei ar fi cu 50% mai mari dec\u00e2t nivelurile sugerate \u00een prezent de pie\u021bele futures. Ar exista \u201elipsuri substan\u021biale\u201d de produse energetice \u0219i inputuri agricole \u0219i industriale produse de economiile din Golf.<\/p>\n

OCDE a afirmat c\u0103 acest lucru ar avea \u201eefecte cicatriciale asupra produc\u021biei poten\u021biale\u201d, cu efecte de domino asupra pie\u021belor financiare \u0219i a \u00eencrederii. De asemenea, ar putea afecta investi\u021biile \u00een inteligen\u021ba artificial\u0103 din cauza cererii mari de energie a sectorului \u0219i av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere importan\u021ba m\u0103rfurilor din Golf \u00een industrii precum semiconductorii.<\/p>\n

Marile b\u0103nci centrale ar trebui s\u0103 majoreze ratele dob\u00e2nzilor cu \u00eentre 0,5 \u0219i 0,75 puncte procentuale pentru a preveni r\u0103sp\u00e2ndirea a\u0219a-numitelor efecte de runda a doua ale cre\u0219terii pre\u021burilor la energie \u00een economia \u00een general. Presiunile asupra finan\u021belor guvernelor ar cre\u0219te, a ad\u0103ugat OCDE, \u00een special \u00een economiile mai slabe.<\/p>\n

Ratele dob\u00e2nzilor mai mari ar limita spa\u021biul disponibil guvernelor pentru a introduce \u201em\u0103suri discre\u021bionare care s\u0103 ajute la stabilizarea activit\u0103\u021bii\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

E\u0219ecul rezolv\u0103rii crizei energetice din Orientul Mijlociu ar arunca lumea \u00eentr-un \u201escenariu sumbru\u201d de sc\u0103dere a cre\u0219terii economice \u0219i cre\u0219tere brusc\u0103 a ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor, a avertizat OCDE. Sc\u0103derea cre\u0219terii economice … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":695908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/695907"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=695907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/695907\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/695908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=695907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=695907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=695907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}