{"id":714259,"date":"2026-09-21T08:17:02","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T08:17:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=714259"},"modified":"2026-09-21T08:17:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T08:17:02","slug":"policriza-in-romania-12-crize-se-pot-suprapune-in-urmatoarele-luni-avertismentul-aei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/?p=714259","title":{"rendered":"\u201ePolicriz\u0103\u201d \u00een Rom\u00e2nia: 12 crize se pot suprapune \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni. Avertismentul AEI"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI) vorbe\u0219te despre \u201epolicriz\u0103\u201d \u0219i spune c\u0103 noul Guvern nu va trebui s\u0103 gestioneze dou\u0103sprezece crize, ci s\u0103 intervin\u0103 asupra cauzelor comune: lipsa capacit\u0103\u021bilor disponibile, dependen\u021ba de importuri, s\u0103r\u0103cia energetic\u0103, instabilitatea fiscal\u0103, investi\u021biile \u00eent\u00e2rziate \u0219i lipsa de transparen\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 sus\u021bine c\u0103, \u00eencep\u00e2nd din toamna acestui an, Rom\u00e2nia intr\u0103 \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 \u00een care vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bile energetice, bugetare, economice, climatice \u0219i sociale se vor alimenta reciproc.<\/p>\n

Unele crize sunt aproape certe, \u00een timp ce altele se vor declan\u0219a numai dac\u0103 vom avea o iarn\u0103 rece, incidente tehnice ori noi \u0219ocuri geopolitice, afirm\u0103 expertul.<\/p>\n

Criza energiei electrice<\/h2>\n

Potrivit pre\u0219edintelui AEI, criza energiei electrice va fi \u201eo criz\u0103 de pre\u021b\u201d. El spune c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia nu duce lips\u0103 de capacit\u0103\u021bi instalate pe h\u00e2rtie, ci duce lips\u0103, \u00een anumite ore, de putere controlabil\u0103 disponibil\u0103.<\/p>\n

Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 a identificat mai multe probleme care se suprapun: capacit\u0103\u021bi pe c\u0103rbune \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nite, centrale pe gaze insuficiente sau \u00eent\u00e2rziate, hidroenergie dependent\u0103 de refacerea rezervelor de ap\u0103, reactoare nucleare expuse opririlor planificate sau accidentale, re\u021bele cu congestii, aceea\u0219i nevoie de import \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, Ungaria, Serbia \u0219i alte state vecine.<\/p>\n

Expertul nu anticipeaz\u0103 un blackout na\u021bional, dar spune c\u0103 sunt posibile pre\u021buri foarte mari \u00een anumite intervale, importuri apropiate de limita tehnic\u0103, \u00eentreruperi locale provocate de vreme sau posibilitatea reducerii unor consumuri industriale dac\u0103 se suprapun gerul, lipsa v\u00e2ntului \u0219i indisponibilit\u0103\u021bi tehnice.<\/p>\n

Criza gazelor<\/h2>\n

Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 arat\u0103 c\u0103 depozitele de gaze Rom\u00e2niei erau la \u00eenceputul lui septembrie \u00een jur de 62,8%, cu peste zece puncte procentuale sub nivelul de anul trecut.<\/p>\n

El spune c\u0103 problema real\u0103 nu este cantitatea anual\u0103 de gaze, ci debitul zilnic disponibil \u00een zilele foarte reci. Criza fizic\u0103, sune expertul, poate ap\u0103rea dac\u0103 se suprapun o iarn\u0103 mai rece dec\u00e2t cea precedent\u0103, depozite insuficient umplute, cerere regional\u0103 mare, reducerea unor surse de import \u0219i produc\u021bie electric\u0103 mare pe gaze.<\/p>\n

\u0218eful AEI precizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia nu va putea conta \u00eentotdeauna pe importuri ieftine \u0219i imediat disponibile.<\/p>\n

Criza motorinei<\/h2>\n

Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 sus\u021bine c\u0103 benzina afecteaz\u0103 direct popula\u021bia, dar motorina afecteaz\u0103 \u00eentreaga economie: agricultur\u0103, construc\u021bii, transport de marf\u0103, distribu\u021bie alimentar\u0103, servicii publice \u0219i industrie.<\/p>\n

El noteaz\u0103 c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia depinde de \u021bi\u021bei importat, de rafinarea acestuia \u0219i de importuri directe de produse petroliere. La \u00eenceputul lui septembrie, statul a fost deja nevoit s\u0103 majoreze reducerea temporar\u0103 a accizei la motorin\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eDac\u0103 petrolul \u0219i marjele rafin\u0103riilor r\u0103m\u00e2n ridicate, Guvernul are numai trei variante: las\u0103 pre\u021bul s\u0103 creasc\u0103; reduce taxele \u0219i pierde venituri bugetare; compenseaz\u0103 anumite sectoare \u0219i majoreaz\u0103 deficitul. Toate cele trei variante produc costuri \u00een alt\u0103 parte\u201d, se arat\u0103 \u00een analiza pre\u0219edintelui AEI.<\/p>\n

Criza fiscal\u0103<\/h2>\n

Comisia European\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia un deficit de aproximativ 6,2% din PIB \u00een 2026 \u0219i o datorie public\u0103 ce ar putea ajunge la 63,3% din PIB \u00een 2027.<\/p>\n

Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 spune c\u0103 Statul va trebui simultan s\u0103 protejeze consumatorii de scumpirea energiei, s\u0103 reduc\u0103 taxarea carburan\u021bilor, s\u0103 sprijine agricultura, s\u0103 finan\u021beze ap\u0103rarea, s\u0103 achite dob\u00e2nzi mai mari, s\u0103 cofinan\u021beze investi\u021biile europene \u0219i s\u0103 reduc\u0103 deficitul.<\/p>\n

\u201eAceast\u0103 ecua\u021bie nu se \u00eenchide f\u0103r\u0103 taxe suplimentare, reducerea unor cheltuieli, am\u00e2narea investi\u021biilor sau o combina\u021bie \u00eentre acestea. Prin urmare, este foarte probabil\u0103 o criz\u0103 a fiscalit\u0103\u021bii imprevizibile: schimb\u0103ri dese de taxe, excep\u021bii, supraimpozit\u0103ri \u0219i m\u0103suri temporare prelungite\u201d, arat\u0103 Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Cost crescut al banilor<\/h2>\n

Rom\u00e2nia este la limita inferioar\u0103 a categoriei recomandate investi\u021biilor. S&P a men\u021binut ratingul BBB-\/A-3, cu perspectiv\u0103 negativ\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u0218eful AEI sus\u021bine c\u0103 o retrogradare nu este inevitabil\u0103, dar chiar \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 aceasta, percep\u021bia de risc poate produce: dob\u00e2nzi mai mari pentru stat, credite mai scumpe pentru companii \u0219i popula\u021bie, deprecierea leului, costuri mai mari pentru investi\u021biile energetice \u0219i presiune suplimentar\u0103 asupra bugetului prin plata dob\u00e2nzilor.<\/p>\n

Adev\u0103rata criz\u0103 poate fi, a\u0219adar, nu \u201eratingul junk\u201d, ci costul crescut al banilor \u00eenainte de retrogradare.<\/p>\n

Criza alimentar\u0103<\/h2>\n

Seceta \u0219i c\u0103ldura au lovit porumbul \u0219i culturile de prim\u0103var\u0103 din Rom\u00e2nia. Efectele vor ap\u0103rea cu \u00eent\u00e2rziere \u00een furaje, carne \u0219i lactate, uleiuri, produse procesate, costurile fermelor, desp\u0103gubirile solicitate bugetului.<\/p>\n

La aceasta se adaug\u0103 criza apei: nivelurile reduse ale Dun\u0103rii afecteaz\u0103 simultan agricultura, naviga\u021bia, hidroenergia \u0219i r\u0103cirea unor capacit\u0103\u021bi energetice, mai transmite Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Crize suplimentare<\/h2>\n

Pre\u0219edintele asocia\u021biei nu exclude apari\u021bia mai multor crize suplimentare, printre care criza lichidit\u0103\u021bii companiilor, care ar putea duce la cre\u0219terea insolven\u021belor, \u00eent\u00e2rzieri la plat\u0103 \u0219i arieratele dintre companii, \u0219i criza investi\u021biilor publice, adic\u0103 o posibil\u0103 reducere a investi\u021biilor \u00een lucr\u0103rile care pot fi am\u00e2nate.<\/p>\n

Criza fondurilor europene, tradus\u0103 prin pierderea unor fonduri sau \u00eenlocuirea lor cu \u00eemprumuturi mai scumpe, criza s\u0103r\u0103ciei energetice, adic\u0103 imposibilitatea unor gospod\u0103rii de a pl\u0103ti simultan energia, alimentele \u0219i ratele, criza \u00eencrederii, care creeaz\u0103 teren pentru proteste, populism, radicalizare \u0219i blocarea reformelor, sunt celelate posibile manifest\u0103ri din \u201epolicriz\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201eIarna 2026\/2027 poate deveni momentul \u00een care criza energetic\u0103 se transform\u0103 \u00eentr-o criz\u0103 economic\u0103, iar criza economic\u0103 \u00eentr-o criz\u0103 social\u0103 \u0219i politic\u0103\u201d, adaug\u0103 Pre\u0219edintele AEI.<\/p>\n

Solu\u021biile AEI<\/h2>\n

Asocia\u021bia propune 12 m\u0103suri pentru prevenirea \u201epolicrizei\u201d:<\/p>\n

1. Program accelerat pentru putere controlabil\u0103
2. Plan na\u021bional de securitate a gazelor
3. Rezerv\u0103 strategic\u0103 \u0219i plan de continuitate pentru carburan\u021bi
4. Protec\u021bie social\u0103 \u021bintit\u0103, nu plafonare general\u0103
5. Sprijinirea contract\u0103rii energiei pe termen lung \u0219i reducerea dependen\u021bei de pia\u021ba spot
6. Pact fiscal pentru energie \u0219i investi\u021bii
7. Protejarea investi\u021biilor esen\u021biale
8. Plan pentru lichiditatea economiei
9. Program na\u021bional pentru ap\u0103, agricultur\u0103 \u0219i securitate alimentar\u0103
10. Scut pentru fondurile europene \u0219i proiectele strategice
11. Program na\u021bional de eficien\u021b\u0103 energetic\u0103
12. Transparen\u021b\u0103 public\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nal\u0103 \u0219i avertizare timpurie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103 (AEI) vorbe\u0219te despre \u201epolicriz\u0103\u201d \u0219i spune c\u0103 noul Guvern nu va trebui s\u0103 gestioneze dou\u0103sprezece crize, ci s\u0103 intervin\u0103 asupra cauzelor comune: lipsa capacit\u0103\u021bilor disponibile, dependen\u021ba … Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":714260,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/714259"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=714259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/714259\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/714260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=714259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=714259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/microscopemedia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=714259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}